PUBLICATIONS & RESEARCH

The Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Tennessee, under contract with the Department of Finance and Administration of the State of Tennessee, conducted a survey of Tennessee residents to ascertain their insurance status and use of medical facilities and their level of satisfaction with the TennCare program. A target sample size of 5,000 households allows us to obtain accurate estimates for subpopulations. The Boyd Center prepared the survey instrument in cooperation with personnel from the Division of TennCare.

Many business leaders from across Tennessee responded to the Boyd Center’s second Business Leaders Survey, providing a unique perspective on Tennessee and the nation’s economy. Responses were provided between January 19 and February 1, 2021, which represents a very challenging time in the nation’s economy because of continuing COVID-19 issues.

Business formation is a critical component of local and national economic growth. The creation of new jobs and establishments from newly minted firms helps ensure the vitality of entrepreneurial activity in the United States. However, Pugsley and Sahin (2019) document a prominent and problematic 30-year decline in new employer business startups, something closely linked with “jobless recoveries.” This is especially concerning given that nearly 20 percent of entrepreneurship stems out of necessity, as opposed to opportunity, during cyclical downturns (Fairlie and Fossen, 2019). The extent to which new firms are able to begin operating as innovative vessels during depressed economic times directly influences the pace at which the national economy can recover to pre-recession levels.

This 2021 volume of An Economic Report to the Governor of the State of Tennessee is the forty-fifth in a series of annual reports compiled in response to requests by state government officials for assistance in achieving greater interdepartmental consistency in planning and budgeting efforts sensitive to the overall economic environment. Both short-term, or business cycle-sensitive forecasts, and longer-term, or trend forecasts, are provided in this report.

Many business leaders from across Tennessee responded to the inaugural Boyd Center’s Business LeadersSurvey, providing a unique perspective on Tennessee and the nation’s economy. Responses were provided between August 12-20, which is a uniquely challenging time in the nation’s economy because of COVID-19. Respondents, over half of whom are CEOs or company owners, represent a broad sample of Tennessee’s businesses, both by size and by industry.

Initial and continuing unemployment insurance claims are some of the only high-frequency data points on the U.S. labor market. During the Covid-19 pandemic, the weekly claims numbers have been a highly followed metric of economic damage. Close examination reveals clear errors in unemployment insurance claims numbers, making it hard to compare claims within and across states, and clouding our interpretation of national totals.

Artificial intelligence (AI) and emerging technologies more broadly are rapidly developing and changing the types of goods and services that people demand and the ways in which they are produced and received. As a result, employment in many industries and occupations is being disrupted. The transitions are likely to accelerate during the next decade, further affecting nearly every aspect of life and work.

This 2020 volume of An Economic Report to the Governor of the State of Tennessee is the forty-fourth in a series of annual reports compiled in response to requests by state government officials for assistance in achieving greater interdepartmental consistency in planning and budgeting efforts sensitive to the overall economic environment. Both short-term, or business cycle-sensitive forecasts, and longer-term, or trend forecasts, are provided in this report.

The Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Tennessee, under contract with the Department of Finance and Administration of the State of Tennessee, conducted a survey of Tennessee residents to ascertain their insurance status and use of medical facilities and their level of satisfaction with the TennCare program. A target sample size of 5,000 households allows us to obtain accurate estimates for subpopulations. The Boyd Center prepared the survey instrument in cooperation with personnel from the Division of TennCare.