2017 Economic Outlook: Global, National and State Perspectives (Boyd Center Economic Forecasting Luncheon)

Authors: William F. Fox, Matthew N. Murray

Publication Date: September 1, 2016

Since World War II, the United States economy has been hemorrhaged by 11 recessions. Two have hit over the past 15 years alone and nearly eight years after the last one in 2008, the nation and Tennessee are continuing to rebound and see strong growth. Economists William Fox and Matthew Murray, with the University of Tennessee, Knoxville's Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, estimate that trends related to that growth will continue into 2017.

Tennessee Business and Economic Outlook, Spring 2016

Authors: Matthew N. Murray, Lawrence M. Kessler

Publication Date: May 1, 2016

Many attribute falling labor force participation rates to the effects of the Great Recession. However, the analysis presented here suggests that the seeds of falling labor force participation rates were sown much further back in history. The male labor force participation rate, in particular, has been in long-term decline, while the participation rate of women began to decline in the early 2000s. The Great Recession certainly aggravated these trends, but the recession was not the lone culprit. The labor force participation rate is likely to show some near-term improvement as tighter labor market conditions draw discouraged workers back into the job hunt. But at some point the long-term trends affecting participation rates will reassert themselves. The preparation of this report was financed in part by the following agencies: the Tennessee Department of Finance and Administration, the Tennessee Department of Economic and Community Development, the Tennessee Department of Revenue, the Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development, and the Appalachian Regional Commission.

Part II: Economic Benefits of Postsecondary Credentials. Incremental Earnings and Revenues Upon Drive to 55 Achievement

Authors: Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, Department of Economic and Community Development, Center for Economic Research in Tennessee, William F. Fox, Lawrence M. Kessler

Publication Date: May 1, 2016

This report expands on our previous analysis by using forecasts of the share of higher educational attainment growth needed in each county for Tennessee as a whole to reach the Drive to 55 goal in 2025. Assuming the attainment goals are met, the analysis projects the additional income to workers living in each county. The economic value of postsecondary education within the state of Tennessee is seen in both higher earning potential for county residents and higher tax revenues for state and local governments. Achieving increased educational attainment levels in Tennessee counties is vital to preparing a region’s workforce for future employer demands.

Economic Benefits of Postsecondary Credentials. Incremental Earnings and Revenues Upon Drive to 55 Achievement

Authors: Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, Department of Economic and Community Development, Center for Economic Research in Tennessee, William F. Fox, Lawrence M. Kessler

Publication Date: February 1, 2016

This report follows a similar methodology to a recent Brookings Institution article, which measures the economic benefits of higher education to communities across the nation. On average, individuals with every type of postsecondary credential earn more than individuals with a high school degree. The higher income potential of Tennessee’s workforce will in turn propel higher levels of spending and savings; increased consumption of goods and services will generate new tax revenues for state and local governments. This report projects the number of additional degrees that Tennessee’s population needs to earn to reach the Drive to 55 goal by 2025. Assuming the attainment goal is met, the analysis then projects increases in earnings and consumption of new certificate and degree holders in Tennessee’s workforce in 2025, above levels that would have been reached without a postsecondary education.