An Economic Report to the Governor of the State of Tennessee, 2016

Authors: Matthew N. Murray, William F. Fox, Celeste K. Carruthers, Lawrence M. Kessler, Vickie C. Cunningham, Mary Elizabeth Glenn

Publication Date: January 1, 2016

This 2016 volume of An Economic Report to the Governor of the State of Tennessee is the 40th in a series of annual reports compiled in response to requests by state government officials for assistance in achieving greater interdepartmental consistency in planning and budgeting efforts sensitive to the overall economic environment. Both short-term, or business cycle-sensitive forecasts, and longer-term, or trend forecasts, are provided in this report. Tennessee forecasts, current as of January 2016, are based on an array of assumptions, particularly at the national level, which are described in Chapter One. Chapter Two details evaluations for major sectors of the Tennessee economy, with an agriculture section provided by The Agri-Industry Modeling and Analysis Group at the University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture. Chapter Three discusses Tennessee’s role in the international economy and presents the long-run outlook and forecast for the state. Chapter Four presents the background, early results, and challenges of Tennessee’s Drive to 55 program. The primary purpose of this annual volume—published, distributed, and financed through the Tennessee Department of Finance and Administration, Tennessee Department of Economic and Community Development, the Tennessee Department of Revenue, the Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development, and the Appalachian Regional Commission—is to provide wide public dissemination of the most-current possible economic analysis to planners and decision-makers in the public and private sectors.

Tennessee Business and Economic Outlook, Fall 2015

Authors: Matthew N. Murray, Lawrence M. Kessler

Publication Date: November 1, 2015

In Tennessee total tax collections grew by 9.3 percent during the first quarter of 2015 (as compared to the first quarter of 2014). This was higher than both the southeast average of 6.5 percent and the national average of 5.1 percent. Among the southeastern states, only Mississippi and North Carolina registered higher tax revenue growth than Tennessee. For the month of August, Tennessee Department of Revenue tax collections totaled $898.4 million, which was $28.5 million or 3.3 percent higher than August’s collections from last year.

The Impact of TennCare: A Survey of Recipients, 2015

Authors: LeAnn Luna, Angela R. Thacker

Publication Date: October 1, 2015

The Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER) at the University of Tennessee, under contract with the Department of Finance and Administration of the State of Tennessee, conducted a survey of Tennessee residents to ascertain their insurance status and use of medical facilities. A target sample size of 5,000 households allows for obtaining accurate estimates for subpopulations. CBER prepared the survey instrument in cooperation with personnel from the Bureau of TennCare.

Basic Education Program (BEP) 2.0 Fiscal Capacity Inputs, 2007-2015

Authors: Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research

Publication Date: July 1, 2015

The Basic Education Program 2.0 (BEP) outlines the funding formula used to allocate state education dollars to Tennessee’s k-12 schools. This formula compares a locality’s average tax rate to its tax use to calculate a percentage reflecting its ability to generate revenue from its own base to cover educational resource needs.