[{"id":20314,"date":"2026-04-17T14:56:17","date_gmt":"2026-04-17T14:56:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/haslam.utk.edu\/gsci\/?post_type=publication&p=20314"},"modified":"2026-07-01T15:34:54","modified_gmt":"2026-07-01T15:34:54","slug":"forecasting-in-supply-chain-planning","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/haslam.utk.edu\/gsci\/publication\/forecasting-in-supply-chain-planning\/","title":{"rendered":"Love to Hate the Forecast: Segmenting Demand Triggers to Drive Total Value"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

From Forecast Accuracy to Demand-Driven Value<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

A New Approach to Supply Chain Planning and Forecasting<\/h5>\n\n\n\n
A White Paper by the University of Tennessee Global Supply Chain Institute<\/span><\/h6>\n\n\n\n

Download Now<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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What\u2019s Inside<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Supply chain leaders love to hate the forecast\u2014and for good reason. For over four decades, companies have invested heavily in forecast accuracy tools, processes, and systems. Yet forecast accuracy remains a persistent source of frustration, and customer service, inventory, and cost targets continue to fall short. The problem, according to new research, is not that forecasting is broken. It is that forecasting is being used as the default demand trigger, even though better alternatives exist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In “Love to Hate the Forecast,” Mike Burnette<\/a> and Lance Saunders<\/a> from the University of Tennessee\u2019s Global Supply Chain Institute<\/strong> (GSCI) <\/strong>and the Advanced Supply Chain Collaborative<\/strong> (ASCC)<\/strong> introduce\u00a0Right-to-Left (RtL) supply chain planning<\/strong>\u2014a demand-driven approach that synchronizes supply chain activity with actual consumption rather than internally-generated forecasts. The paper argues that most supply chains are built around Left-to-Right (LtR) planning, which prioritizes internal efficiency, supplier capabilities, and operational norms over actual consumer demand. RtL planning reverses that logic, starting with the consumer and working backwards through the supply chain. Contributing editors Ted Stank<\/a> and Dan Pellathy<\/a> bring additional depth to the research through their extensive work on supply chain integration and best practices in planning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central to RtL planning is the concept of demand triggers<\/strong>, the parameter that initiates activity in a supply chain. Rather than relying solely on a forecast, leading-edge companies segment their products and SKUs to select the demand trigger that creates the highest total value for each category. Demand triggers range from produce-to-consumption and produce-to-point-of-sale, to rate-based planning, buffer management, and forecasting\u2014each appropriate for different product types, lead times, and demand patterns. Because company-driven variation, including pricing, promotions, and bonus systems, is frequently the largest source of demand variation, the paper also examines the organizational and cultural changes required to make RtL planning work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Three detailed case studies illustrate how a global Fortune 500 CPG company, a regional food manufacturer, and an electronics company each applied RtL planning concepts to reduce inventory, improve customer service, and lower total delivered costs. As a result, supply chain planners and leaders walk away with both the conceptual foundation and a practical starting point for transforming their planning processes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Download to Explore<\/h3>\n\n\n\n