Haslam College of Business - UT Haslam Researcher Explores How Temperature Gives Store Brands a Sales Boost

Imagine a Walmart shopper with a cart full of Great Value pasta and Equate hand soaps. Why does that same shopper opt for Tide laundry detergent when a similar Walmart product is offered at a lower price? What if a Target shopper is happy to buy generic paper towels but insists on only purchasing Colgate toothpaste?

For retailers with their own brands (a $200 billion market), these scenarios raise the important question of how to motivate shoppers to put more trust in higher-profit store brands.

Daniel Chavez, assistant professor in the Department of Marketing at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Haslam College of Business, and coresearcher have a surprising answer: Temperature influences how much risk and trust consumers are willing to extend to brands.

Trust Increases with Higher Temperatures

According to Chavez, consumers often place less trust in generic products and their abilities to perform at the same level as name brands. Research shows consumers perceive store brands as lower in quality, which affects their actions.

“If you’re going to consume in public, like at a tailgate or a party, then you don’t take Kroger-brand nacho chips; you take Doritos because your friends trust the brand’s quality,” Chavez says.

To explain this social interplay, Chavez and his coauthor turned to an evolutionary psychology framework: warmth fosters openness and social trust, while cold triggers caution and resource preservation.

“In cold climates, resources are scarcer, so we evolved to be less gregarious and share only with close circles. Our trust in others lowers,” Chavez explains. “In summer, we’re more friendly, more social and more willing to trust and take risks.”

Exploring the Trust-Temperature Continuum

The scholars tested this framework, asking when temperatures are higher, does the willingness to take a chance on a store brand rise? They examined temperature patterns across the year in correlation with sales and market share of store brands versus national brands in three predominantly warm cities — San Antonio, Miami and Los Angeles — and three cold ones — Detroit, Chicago and Boston. The data focused on 18 product categories of consumer packed goods (CPGs), from ink and diapers to pasta sauce and cleaning supplies.

The researchers found a consistent result: When temperature relative to the regional average is higher, store brand market share increases. When temperature is lower relative to average, store brand share decreases. The pattern held regardless of the temperature inside stores.

Investigating Temperature’s Effect on Consumer Behavior

The study then went to the lab, where, in one experiment, participants visited a mock grocery store with a shopping list. Half the participants had a cold pack on their neck before shopping, while the other half had a warm pack. The researchers tracked how often the shoppers bought store brands versus national ones. A higher proportion of store brands were purchased in the warm condition than in the cold condition.

Since stores cannot impose warm packs on their customers, the researchers explored the impact of temperature-related imagery. In a second experiment, participants viewed cold images (e.g., snow, blizzards, snowboarding) or warm images (e.g., fireplaces, beaches). Then they made trust- and risk-preference assessments, as well as generic- versus name-brand decisions. The participants who viewed warm imagery made riskier choices and preferred store brands more than those who viewed cold imagery.

Real Businesses Impacts

Given that store brands’ quality is trusted less than name brands, this research demonstrates how CPG businesses can take advantage of the temperature-trust dynamic. Leveraging warm imagery or seasonal temperatures can increase store brand market share, which can directly impact the bottom line.

“Retailers make a higher profit on store-brand CPGs because the margins are higher than on the national brand,” Chavez explains. “Walmart makes more money on the Walmart brand of ibuprofen than on Advil.”

Alex Zablah, marketing department head, Gerber/Taylor Distinguished Professor and Kinney Family Faculty Research Fellow, believes Chavez’s research exemplifies the industry-informed work the college’s marketing faculty pursue.

“Not only is the study into temperature, trust and store brands fascinating, it is highly applicable,” Zablah says. “As consumers, we’ve all been presented the choice between store and national brands, and what we decide has a big effect for retailers and CPG companies. Like much of the research from faculty in Haslam’s Department of Marketing, Daniel’s latest study uncovers the hidden factors that shape everyday decisions and gives businesses a clearer roadmap for how best to respond.”

When they began the research, Chavez and his colleague were working with a CPG business concerned about profitability, especially of its store brands. Based on the research, that company is now stocking and marketing differently depending on the season.

Moreover, the research has wider implications beyond the balance sheet; it reflects broad implications for trust, risk-taking and social behavior. Temperature can quietly shape what consumers buy, but it also affects how open people are to brands and to each other.

“Warming up to Private Labels: Temperature Impacts Private Label Performance,” by Josh Lundberg and Daniel Chavez, was published in the Journal of Retailing in December 2025.

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CONTACT:

Leah McAmis, senior editor, leah@utk.edu