Nashville and Middle Tennessee County Transportation Revenue Forecasts, August 2017

Authors: William F. Fox, Lawrence M. Kessler, Tammy S. Lemon, LeAnn Luna, Alex S. Norwood

Publication Date: August 22, 2017

The Nashville area seeks to undertake major transportation improvements given the region’s rapid economic growth, significantly increasing congestion, and the expectation that enhanced transportation services would spur even greater growth. This report focuses on one aspect of this challenging issue – how financing could be generated – by developing the capacity to forecast revenue for Nashville area counties. The revenues potentially could be used to finance major transportation improvements. The report concentrates on four major tax instruments: sales tax, property tax, hotel/motel tax, and wheel tax. The revenue estimating capacity is developed for 10 counties: Cheatham, Davidson, Dickson, Maury, Montgomery, Robertson, Rutherford, Sumner, Williamson, and Wilson counties.

Evaluating Options for Funding Tennessee's Infrastructure Needs

Authors: Donald J. Bruce

Publication Date: February 1, 2017

A healthy infrastructure network is critical to Tennessee’s economy. Unfortunately, the funding mechanism behind the state’s infrastructure is falling short. At its core is a system of per-gallon taxes on motor fuel and diesel fuel. While improvements in fuel efficiency create an important environmental benefit in the form of cleaner air, the slower growth in the demand for gasoline means fewer dollars for highway maintenance. The resulting backlog will eventually place significant demands on the state’s overall revenue portfolio.

An Economic Report to the Governor of the State of Tennessee, 2017

Authors: Matthew N. Murray, William F. Fox, Matthew C. Harris, Lawrence M. Kessler, Vickie C. Cunningham, Mary Elizabeth Glenn

Publication Date: January 1, 2017

This 2017 volume of An Economic Report to the Governor of the State of Tennessee is the 41st in a series of annual reports compiled in response to requests by state government officials for assistance in achieving greater interdepartmental consistency in planning and budgeting efforts sensitive to the overall economic environment. Both short-term, or business cycle-sensitive forecasts, and longer-term, or trend forecasts, are provided in this report. Tennessee forecasts, current as of January 2017, are based on an array of assumptions, particularly at the national level, which are described in Chapter One. Chapter Two details evaluations for major sectors of the Tennessee economy, with an agriculture section provided by the University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture. Chapter Three discusses presents the long-run outlook and forecast for the state. Chapter Four presents the effects of the expected coming increase in retirements in Tennessee, which is expected to increase between 80 and 100 percent over the next 15 years. The primary purpose of this annual volume—published, distributed, and financed through the Tennessee Department of Finance and Administration, Tennessee Department of Economic and Community Development, the Tennessee Department of Revenue, and the Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development — is to provide wide public dissemination of the most-current possible economic analysis to planners and decision-makers in the public and private sectors.

The Impact of TennCare: A Survey of Recipients, 2016

Authors: LeAnn Luna, Angela R. Thacker

Publication Date: September 30, 2016

The Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Tennessee, under contract with the Department of Finance and Administration of the State of Tennessee, conducted a survey of Tennessee residents to ascertain their insurance status and use of medical facilities and their level of satisfaction with the TennCare program. A target sample size of 5,000 households allows us to obtain accurate estimates for subpopulations. The Boyd Center prepared the survey instrument in cooperation with personnel from the Bureau of TennCare.